Decline In Solar Panel Prices Over Time

The price of solar has dropped by an incredible amount.

Decline in solar panel prices over time.

According to swanson s law whenever the production and shipment of solar panels doubles panel prices drop by 20 percent. Let s add forecasts made by the international energy agency iea in their 2010 world energy outlook along with the forecast i made in 2011 at scientific american. Second ppa costs are falling. Over the last decade wind energy prices have fallen 70 and solar photovoltaics have fallen 89 on average according to lazard s 2019 report.

We might now be in a post swanson era. The cost has generally been following swanson s law which states that the price of solar drops by 20 for every doubling of shipped product. Note these figures may have a minus sign in front of them as in 0 7 or 0 25. The dramatic drop in the cost of solar photovoltaic pv modules which has fallen by 99 percent over the last four decades is often touted as a major success story for renewable energy technology.

Trends have continued until recently with a report from the nrel that showed the price per watt of solar energy dropped by 27 in the first quarter of 2017 alone. It s a good idea not to get these percentages confused. Back in 1977 the price of solar photovoltaic cells was 77 for just one watt of power. As recently as 2011 solar ppa prices in excess of 100 mwh were quite common.

Prices have dropped more than 60 percent in the past several years with the average upfront cost for the commonly used 6 kw system landing between 16 200 21 420. Solar panel cost over time the price decreases over the past ten years are a major reason why homeowners are increasingly interested in installing solar panels. Utility scale renewable energy prices are now. But one question has never been fully addressed.

Just as remarkably and relevant for considering the future cost of solar the decline of solar prices over the past decade has been faster than almost any credible forecast. Today it s around 0 13 per watt or about 600 times less. As costs decline the number of people for whom solar is a viable affordable possibility increases which further depresses panel prices. For many panels this is given as 2 to 3 in the first year and then 0 7 a year after that but it can be as low as 0 25 a year for some sunpower panels.

The effect is cyclical.